Gold Mining: 5 Proven Frameworks Expert Investors Use to Protect Assets During Global De-Dollarization
Gold mining equities have never been cheaper relative to metal prices — yet 150 central banks around the world are quietly accumulating physical gold as de-dollarization accelerates.
Key Takeaways
- Understand why gold mining equities present a significant valuation disconnect relative to current metal prices, according to Jonathan Awde’s analysis in this episode.
- Learn how experienced gold mining operators use All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) as a critical benchmark for evaluating producer quality and margin resilience.
- Discover why de-dollarization trends and central bank gold accumulation are reshaping the global gold mining investment thesis for institutional and individual investors alike.
- Consider how gold mining jurisdiction selection and private land strategies can meaningfully reduce permitting risk and project timeline uncertainty.
- Explore the framework Jonathan Awde uses to identify exceptional operators in gold mining by evaluating alignment, track record, and demonstrated performance across full market cycles.
Gold Mining and the De-Dollarization Macro Shift Every Investor Needs to Understand
Framework: Jonathan Awde, Dakota Gold
Gold mining is moving from a niche commodity strategy to a mainstream macro hedge as global de-dollarization accelerates at a pace few investors anticipated. In this episode of Making Billions Podcast, Jonathan Awde, president, CEO, and co-founder of Dakota Gold, explains the structural forces driving institutional interest in gold mining assets. According to Awde, the 50-year petrodollar relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia has fundamentally shifted, creating a new demand dynamic for gold as a settlement mechanism.
Awde describes how geopolitical events have given the rest of the world a clear signal about the risks of holding dollar-denominated reserves. When Russia invaded Ukraine and the United States seized Russian assets, central banks around the world began repatriating gold held in foreign vaults. This gold mining demand signal, driven by sovereign-level actors rather than retail sentiment, represents a qualitatively different kind of market force than most Investors typically analyze.
According to Awde, over 150 central banks are currently accumulating physical gold, a trend he describes as one of the most significant and underappreciated developments in the gold mining sector. The formation of BRICS-aligned economic blocs and their desire to settle transactions outside the US dollar system is, in Awde’s view, a multi-decade tailwind for gold mining assets. Investors seeking to understand this macro backdrop can review additional context on global reserve currency dynamics through resources at the International Monetary Fund.
Gold Mining Operator Selection: The Framework Jonathan Awde Uses to Identify Elite Management Teams
Gold mining success, according to Jonathan Awde, begins and ends with people. Awde states clearly in this episode that his single most important Investment criterion across two decades in the gold mining industry has been identifying operators who have genuine skin in the game. In his view, a management team that has not invested its own capital alongside shareholders has a fundamental misalignment that no amount of geological upside can compensate for.
Awde points to his business partner Bob Quartermaine as an example of the operator profile he seeks in gold mining ventures. Quartermaine co-founded Silver Standard in 1987 with a market cap of $2.5 million and grew it to $2.5 Billion before founding Pretium, which was sold for $3.5 billion to the world’s third-largest gold producer. According to Awde, Quartermaine achieved the full cycle from discovery to gold pour in under seven years on his second company, a timeline that Awde describes as exceptional in the gold mining industry where the average discovery-to-production cycle now exceeds 12 years.
The gold mining operator framework Awde outlines in this episode includes three dimensions: the ability to think simultaneously as a mining engineer, geologist, financier, and strategist; a demonstrated track record of performance across both bull and bear market cycles; and genuine financial alignment with shareholders. Awde notes that in gold mining, anyone can generate returns when metal prices are rising, but the separation between good and great management becomes visible only during periods of stress and market dislocation. Readers can explore additional frameworks for evaluating management quality through Harvard Business Review’s leadership research.
Gold Mining AISC Benchmarks: How to Evaluate Gold Mining Producer Quality and Margin Resilience
| Dimension | Direct Producer Equity | Royalty Model |
|---|---|---|
| Cost Metric | AISC per ounce (target: $1,000–$1,400) | % of net metal sales (e.g. 2.5%) |
| Operational Risk | High — bears full ops & capex burden | None — no operational exposure |
| Margin Driver | Gold price minus full AISC stack | Fixed % revenue regardless of price |
| Upside Leverage | High — leveraged to gold price moves | Moderate — capped by royalty rate |
| Example | Agnico Eagle (~$1,100 AISC) | Franco-Nevada (royalty streams) |
Framework: Jonathan Awde, Dakota Gold
Gold mining producers are not all created equal, and the All-In Sustaining Cost metric, commonly referred to as AISC, is one of the most important tools for distinguishing between high-quality and marginal operators in the gold mining sector. In this episode, Awde explains that AISC captures the full cost of maintaining gold mining production, including sustaining Capital expenditures, general and administrative costs, and other operational expenses beyond simple cash costs. The lower the AISC number, the greater the margin a gold mining producer enjoys at any given gold price.
Awde uses Agnico Eagle as his benchmark example of best-in-class gold mining operations, citing an AISC of approximately $1,100 per ounce against a gold price environment of $2,350 at the time of recording. According to Awde, this produces a margin of over 50%, which he describes as the product of deliberate long-term thinking, hub-and-spoke mine sequencing, and deep familiarity with the jurisdictions and workforces in which the company operates. For investors evaluating gold mining producers, Awde suggests targeting operators in the bottom cost quartile, generally between $1,000 and $1,400 per ounce AISC.
Awde also introduces the royalty model as an alternative gold mining exposure structure, using Franco-Nevada as a reference point. In the royalty model, the company receives a percentage of net metal sales from a mine without bearing operational, commodity, or personnel risk. According to Awde, a 2.5% royalty on a mine generating $100 million in revenue produces $2.5 million regardless of prevailing gold prices, representing a structurally different risk profile than direct gold mining equity. Investors seeking to understand AISC reporting standards can review additional context through the SEC‘s EDGAR database for gold mining company filings.
Gold Mining Jurisdiction Strategy: Why Location Determines More Than Geology in Gold Mining
Gold mining jurisdiction selection is one of the most consequential and least discussed dimensions of gold mining investment analysis. According to Awde in this episode, there are certain countries where he has no interest in operating as an investor or principal, specifically those where rule of law does not apply consistently or where government intervention risk is high. He describes friends who have lost five to ten years of their careers and their entire capital base because of government expropriation or retroactive royalty demands in high-risk jurisdictions.
Awde’s gold mining strategy deliberately targets mature or overlooked jurisdictions with established legal frameworks, and wherever possible, private land rather than federal land. He explains that Dakota Gold’s operations in the Homestake District of Lead, South Dakota are conducted entirely on private ground, which eliminates the federal permitting triggers that add years to project timelines. In the gold mining industry, permitting timelines have become one of the primary constraints on bringing new supply to market, with the average discovery-to-production timeline now exceeding 12 years globally.
The permitting challenge in gold mining has a direct implication for investors analyzing the supply side of the gold market. According to Awde, even if a world-class copper or gold deposit were discovered today, it would take 12 to 14 years to reach production under a greenfield permitting process, and 7 to 10 years for a brownfield project with existing infrastructure. This supply constraint is one of the structural arguments Awde makes for higher metal prices across multiple commodity categories over the coming decade. For additional context on mining permitting frameworks, the Bureau of Land Management’s mining and minerals page provides relevant regulatory background.
Gold Mining Market Cycle Signals: How to Identify Gold Mining Entry Points and Avoid Value Traps
Gold mining investors who cannot distinguish between a genuine value opportunity and a value trap will find the sector particularly punishing. Awde addresses this directly in this episode, explaining that fear is a more powerful motivator than greed, which means most investors will chase rising gold mining Stocks far more readily than they will buy into periods of extreme pessimism. According to Awde, periods of extreme pessimism in gold mining equities are precisely where the most significant long-term opportunities tend to emerge for disciplined investors.
When evaluating a declining gold mining stock, Awde’s primary question is whether the underlying fundamentals of the company have changed. If a liquidity event, such as a Fund redemption, creates forced selling pressure, or if a Federal Reserve announcement temporarily suppresses gold prices, those are external factors that do not reflect the intrinsic value of a well-run gold mining company. In those moments, Awde looks specifically at insider behavior as a signal, noting that consistent insider buying during price weakness is one of the most informative data points available to outside investors.
The broader gold mining cycle framework Awde describes in this episode involves monitoring the relationship between Federal Reserve policy, the US dollar, and gold equity fund flows. Historically, gold mining stocks have had an inverse relationship with the US dollar. According to Awde, when the Federal Reserve pivots from rate hikes to rate cuts, Money typically flows first into gold ETFs and subsequently into gold mining equities, creating a sequential opportunity window that sophisticated investors can position for in advance. Readers seeking to understand interest rate cycle analysis can review additional research through Bloomberg’s rates and bonds coverage.
Gold Mining and the $6 Trillion Catalyst: What Unlocks Institutional Capital Into the Gold Mining Sector
Gold mining equities are currently experiencing one of the most pronounced bifurcations in recent memory, with strong metal prices coexisting alongside historically cheap equity valuations. According to Awde, approximately $6 trillion in cash and dry powder is sitting on the sidelines, and the primary catalyst for deploying that capital into gold mining and related sectors is a clear Federal Reserve pivot from rate hikes to rate easing. Awde argues that when rates begin to fall, investors will seek more attractive returns, and gold mining equities represent a historically undervalued entry point relative to current gold prices.
Awde identifies several macro forces that he believes will drive capital into gold mining over the next five to ten years. These include the electrification and decarbonization of the global economy, which requires massive quantities of copper, silver, and other metals that can only be produced through responsible gold mining and broader mining activity; the unsustainability of US deficit spending at $2.5 to $3 trillion annually, which he believes will create long-term pressure on the US dollar; and the structural supply shortage in virtually every major metal category due to the collapse of the new mine development pipeline. According to Awde, the world needs the equivalent of a new Escondida copper mine every year to meet demand, and no such mine currently exists in the development pipeline.
The gold mining sector, in Awde’s analysis, benefits from all of these forces simultaneously. Gold represents less than 1.5% of global assets, which means even a modest reallocation from traditional asset classes into gold mining equities could produce a significant re-rating. Awde describes this as one of the most interesting asymmetric positioning opportunities he has seen in his career across multiple gold mining cycles. Investors seeking additional context on institutional asset allocation trends can review analysis from The Wall Street Journal’s market data coverage.
Gold Mining Competitive Edge: Three Principles Jonathan Awde Uses to Accelerate Gold Mining Expertise
Invest only with operators who have skin in the game, multi-disciplinary expertise, and a verified track record across full bull and bear cycles
Target stable legal frameworks and private land access to eliminate permitting risk, sovereign risk, and expropriation exposure entirely
Monitor Fed policy direction; ETF flows precede equity flows — position before the broader market identifies the entry window
Framework: Jonathan Awde, Dakota Gold
Gold mining expertise, according to Jonathan Awde, is built on a foundation of three repeatable principles that any serious investor can apply regardless of their starting point in the sector. The first principle is to invest in people with a proven track record across multiple cycles, specifically operators who have demonstrated the ability to think across multiple disciplines simultaneously and who have genuine financial alignment with their shareholders. Awde references legendary resource investor Rick Rule’s observation that concentrating Capital Raising in six gold mining legends would have produced extraordinary outcomes over a five-decade career.
The second principle Awde identifies in gold mining investment is disciplined jurisdiction selection. According to Awde, the social risk, permitting risk, and government expropriation risk in certain jurisdictions can destroy five to ten years of work and eliminate entire capital positions. Focusing on mature, legally stable jurisdictions with private land access wherever possible eliminates an entire category of risk that is difficult to price accurately and virtually impossible to recover from once it materializes. This principle is directly embedded in Dakota Gold’s gold mining strategy of operating entirely on private land within the Homestake District.
The third principle Awde articulates for gold mining investors is cycle awareness combined with the discipline to act during periods of maximum pessimism. Understanding that fund flows into gold ETFs precede fund flows into gold mining equities, and that the Federal Reserve’s policy direction is the primary trigger for that sequence, gives investors a framework for identifying entry windows before the broader market recognizes the opportunity. According to Awde, the current environment of bifurcated metal prices and depressed gold mining equity valuations represents exactly the type of setup his framework is designed to identify. For additional perspective on commodity cycle analysis, Investopedia’s commodity research section provides useful foundational context.
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About the Guest
Jonathan Awde is the president, CEO, and co-founder of Dakota Gold, a publicly traded South Dakota-based responsible gold exploration and development company. He co-founded Dakota Gold with precious metals gold mining executive Robert Quartermaine and has over 15 years of experience in gold exploration and development. He has raised over $600 million across his various investment opportunities in the gold mining industry during that period. Dakota Gold is focused on revitalizing the Homestake District in Lead, South Dakota, which is historically America’s largest single gold mine, having produced over 40 million ounces of gold from 1876 to 2001.
Prior to Dakota Gold, Awde was president, CEO, and co-founder of Gold Standard Ventures, where he consolidated a land package in Nevada’s prolific Carlin Trend, made several significant discoveries, and ultimately sold the company to Orla Mining for approximately $300 million. Dakota Gold can be reached through its website at dakotagoldcorp.com, and Jonathan Awde can be contacted directly at jawde@dakotagoldcorp.com. The company maintains an active LinkedIn presence and is engaged with its shareholder community in Lead, South Dakota.
Questions Answered in This Article
What assets are most likely to survive a currency collapse?
Hard assets with intrinsic value, such as gold, silver, real estate, and commodities, have historically maintained purchasing power when fiat currencies deteriorate. In the episode, Ryan Miller discusses how tangible assets provide a structural buffer against currency debasement that paper-based holdings cannot replicate. Investors focused on surviving a currency collapse prioritize assets that exist outside the traditional banking and monetary system.
Hear the full breakdown on Making Billions with Ryan Miller — and fund managers ready to implement join the Fund Raise Capital community of fund managers and deal syndicators learning first-hand from Ryan Miller, The Wolf of Alt Street.
Where should I put my money if the dollar collapses?
Diversification across multiple asset classes and currencies is the foundational response to dollar instability, according to the episode’s discussion. Precious metals, foreign-denominated assets, and real assets outside the U.S. monetary system are frequently cited as core holdings for those concerned about dollar collapse scenarios. Concentration in any single currency or sovereign system amplifies risk rather than reducing it.
Hear the full breakdown on Making Billions with Ryan Miller — and fund managers ready to implement join the Fund Raise Capital community of fund managers and deal syndicators learning first-hand from Ryan Miller, The Wolf of Alt Street.
How can fund managers protect portfolios during a global currency crisis?
Fund managers protecting portfolios during a global currency crisis must move beyond conventional equity and bond allocations toward hard assets, alternative currencies, and geographically diversified holdings. The episode emphasizes that proactive positioning before a crisis matures is far more effective than reactive reallocation once volatility is already priced into markets. Stress-testing portfolio construction against currency devaluation scenarios is a discipline that separates prepared managers from those caught flat-footed.
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Which safe-haven assets hold value during a currency reset?
Gold remains the most historically consistent safe-haven asset during a currency reset, alongside silver, land, and select commodities that carry intrinsic utility. The episode frames a currency reset as a period where the relationship between asset value and monetary denomination is fundamentally repriced, making tangible holdings structurally advantaged. Assets tied to productive capacity, such as agriculture and energy infrastructure, also feature in the discussion as durable stores of value.
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Is 2026 going to be a financial crisis for institutional investors?
The episode addresses mounting macroeconomic pressures that institutional investors should monitor closely as potential precursors to broader financial instability in the near term. While no specific outcome is guaranteed, the discussion highlights that sovereign debt levels, currency debasement trends, and geopolitical fragmentation are converging in ways that warrant defensive positioning. Institutional investors who wait for crisis confirmation before acting typically face the worst entry conditions.
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How should family offices diversify beyond basics during currency instability?
Family offices facing currency instability are advised in the episode to move beyond standard 60/40 allocations and incorporate direct ownership of real assets, private credit, and non-correlated alternative investments. Geographic diversification across multiple jurisdictions adds a layer of structural protection that domestic-only portfolios cannot provide. The episode frames this expanded diversification not as speculative positioning but as fundamental risk management for preserving multi-generational wealth.
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Can banks seize your money if the economy collapses entirely?
The episode discusses the legal and structural mechanisms, including bail-in provisions, that exist in various jurisdictions and allow financial institutions to convert depositor funds into equity under extreme insolvency conditions. This is a documented regulatory framework, not a fringe concern, and it underscores why holding assets outside the traditional banking system is a meaningful risk management consideration. Investors and fund managers who understand these mechanisms are better positioned to structure holdings that reduce exposure to counterparty risk within the banking sector.
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What happens to institutional holdings when a global currency crisis hits?
During a global currency crisis, institutional holdings denominated in weakening currencies experience real purchasing power erosion even when nominal values appear stable, a dynamic the episode addresses directly. Liquidity can seize across correlated asset classes simultaneously, forcing institutions into distressed selling at precisely the wrong moment. The episode stresses that institutional resilience in a currency crisis depends on pre-crisis construction choices, not crisis-period reactions.
Hear the full breakdown on Making Billions with Ryan Miller — and fund managers ready to implement join the Fund Raise Capital community of fund managers and deal syndicators learning first-hand from Ryan Miller, The Wolf of Alt Street.
Topics Covered in This Article
- Gold mining investment frameworks for evaluating operator quality and management alignment
- Gold mining AISC benchmarks and how to use All-In Sustaining Costs to assess producer margins
- De-dollarization trends and their structural impact on gold mining demand from central banks
- Gold mining jurisdiction selection strategies for reducing permitting and sovereign risk
- How to identify value opportunities versus value traps in gold mining equities during price declines
- The $6 trillion dry powder catalyst and what Awde believes will trigger institutional flows into gold mining
- Gold mining royalty models as an alternative exposure structure with different risk characteristics
- Supply chain constraints and permitting timelines shaping the long-term gold mining production outlook
- Copper and battery metals as complementary commodity themes alongside gold mining investment
- The hub-and-spoke mine development model and how leading gold mining companies achieve economies of scale
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